ALL IN drawing Dead with a $340,200 Nightmare

 

🃏 The Setup

• Pot size: $340,200

• Selbst's hand: J♦ 7♦

• Friedman's hand: A♦ A♥

• Selbst action: All-in for $169,500

• Friedman: Snap call (with pocket Aces, obviously)

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📉 Preflop Analysis

Selbst (J♦ 7♦):

• This hand is suited and connected, but it's very weak for a massive all-in, especially if it's early in the hand.

• Maybe she was trying a bluff or a squeeze play, or attempting to represent strength against what she thought was a weak opponent.

• However, bluffing into a strong player or stack with a speculative hand like J7 is risky and generally ill-advised unless you're very confident in your read.

Friedman (A♦ A♥):

• Best starting hand in No-Limit Hold’em.

• 85% equity preflop against J♦ 7♦.

• Easy call vs. almost any reasonable or aggressive all-in range.

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🧠 Possible Thought Process

• Selbst may have:

  • Misread Friedman's range as weak.

  • Been short-stacked or under pressure (trying to double up or steal).

  • Thought a suited connector had fold equity or wanted to leverage aggression.

• Friedman just had to sit back and trap.

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📊 Equity Breakdown (Preflop)

• A♦ A♥ (Friedman): ~85%

• J♦ 7♦ (Selbst): ~15%

Even with both cards suited and a chance at straights or flushes, J7 suited is still a significant underdog to pocket Aces.

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💥 Key Mistake

Going all-in without fold equity and with a hand that's completely dominated.

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🧩 Conclusion

• Selbst made an over-aggressive play, probably based on misreading Friedman's hand strength.

• Friedman had an ideal trap hand and punished the move.

• This is a great example of why timing, reading opponents, and positional awareness are critical in poker.

• Also shows how emotional reaction (Selbst holding her head) can reveal the shock of realizing you're nearly drawing dead after a risky play.

And here is result:

Two time ALL IN Vanessa Selbst lost both