Tom Dwan deep in thought: Wonder if Ivey's gonna fold this hand?

 

Players & Hole Cards:

• Tom Dwan: J♣ 9♦

• Phil Ivey: J♠ T♠

---

Board (Flop + Turn):

• 9♥ J♦ J♥ 10♥

---

Hand Strengths:

Tom Dwan – J♣ 9♦

• Full House: Jacks full of Nines (J-J-J-9-9)

Phil Ivey – J♠ T♠

• Full House: Jacks full of Tens (J-J-J-T-T)

---

Current Situation (Turn):

• Dwan is all-in, and it's Ivey's decision.

Analysis:

• Both players hit trip Jacks on the flop.

• The turn 10♥ is a killer card—it improves both players from trips to full houses.

• However, Ivey has the superior full house: his Ten kicker pairs with the board’s Ten to beat Dwan’s Nine.

• Equity:

  • Ivey: ~93% to win (as shown in the image)

  • Dwan: ~0% (needs runner-runner miracle if river isn’t a 9)

• Only one card left: Dwan is drawing dead unless there's some misread—no possible river helps him.

---

Psychological Factor:

• From the meme, it looks like Ivey is tanking (thinking hard), likely trying to narrow Dwan’s range and consider whether Dwan could have J9, JT, JJ, or a bluff.

• But mathematically, Ivey should call 100% of the time unless he somehow puts Dwan exactly on JJ or a better boat—which is extremely unlikely.

---

Conclusion:

• Ivey should snap-call—he has one of the top full house combos here.

• Dwan’s shove is brave, but he ran into a better full house.

• Just a brutal cooler—same trips, better kicker full house wins.

This is a textbook case of full house over full house, a type of hand known in poker as a "cooler"—very tough to fold for the loser.

Check Full video: